Another Five Years of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael: What Happened?

As the dust settles on the election results it’s now clear that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have the numbers to form a government - they need just 2 seats to form a majority. Fine Gael went into the campaign with a smug confidence but stumbled through the campaign - they had a candidate who assaulted someone, Simon Harris disrespected care workers and was pathetic in televised debates.

But a general political shift to the right with low voter turnout in working class areas meant the establishment could still come out on top. Many wealthy people voted. Many workers didn’t.

This election saw the lowest voter turnout since 1923 - a significant year that marked the defeat of the Irish revolution. Workers had revolted against the British Empire using mass strikes, even taking over Limerick City at one point, but the revolution was stolen by the political ancestors of Fine Gael. It’s no surprise most workers didn’t vote in 1923.

In the 2024 general election just 59.71% of registered voters voted. That means that over 40% of registered voters weren’t inspired to vote. The figures are even higher for the working class if you consider the lower than average turnout in working class areas and the fact that far fewer people are registered to vote in the first place in our estates.

In outgoing Taoiseach Simon Harris’s Wicklow constituency turnout was 67.81%, the lowest turnouts were in the Dublin areas of Adamstown on just 28.8% and Jobstown on 39%.

That means 61% of registered voters in Jobstown didn’t vote. Now take into account that a lot of people aren’t even registered in our areas and you’ll see that 61% turnout under-reports the disengagement. While some on the twitter left mock the non-voters you have to ask why would you think the neoliberal Irish state can offer you anything when you live among the deprived, the ignored and the disenfranchised?

By contrast, when people power struggle was rising, turnouts increased: between 2007 and 2016 votes rose in working class areas in Dublin. These included North Clondalkin, West Tallaght, Cherry Orchard/Ballyfermot, Tyrrelstown/Mulhuddart, Drimnagh/Crumlin, Finglas, Ballymun and Darndale, as well as parts of the Liberties and the North Inner City.

An 8 year long arc of rising struggle from the 2008 banking crash onwards reached its peak with the water charges movement of 2014 to 2016. Despite continued political engagement from working class areas in the Marriage Equality and Repeal votes the level of struggle was falling with the activist base of Repeal, for example, drawn from more college educated and middle class layers.

The same could be said for the climate movement which led to a Green wave in 2020.

The Covid lockdowns came at a time of falling confidence in the working class further demoralising people. The class struggle is key to understanding political developments over this period. In the first phase after the bank bailout union leaders called protests and used them to promote the Labour Party - later demobilising the protest movement to get Labour into office. Once in power Labour betrayed the working class.

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

During the water charges Sinn Féin employed the same arguments as Labour had - don’t worry about people power, get us into government and we’ll cancel the charges. The party refused to support the boycott of bills and were out of step with the mass movement. As the movement rose their vote went from 220,661 total votes to 295,319 total votes.

But the socialist left had a bigger proportionate rise from 48,321 total votes to 84,168 total votes - our vote doubled over the course of those dramatic 5 years.

As the movement fell and working class people lost confidence the Sinn Féin offer of salvation from above gained ground - they went from 295,319 total votes in 2016 to 535,595 in the 2020 general election. The desire for a Sinn Féin led government wasn’t born of a rising movement, it was born of falling confidence in the estates.

Eventually falling working class confidence would impact even those who promised salvation from above - Sinn Féin lost over 100,000 voters between 2020 and 2024. That’s 100,000 people who they failed to convince to come out and vote for them.

Most key Sinn Féin candidates lost thousands of voters in this election. In Dublin North West, for example, Dessie Ellis got 14,375 votes in 2020 but only 5,562 in 2024. His running mate in 2024 got 4,503 votes - that means they lost 4,310 voters (about the same amount of votes the far right combined got in the area!)

The far right played a role in poisoning the political scene by spreading division, slander and lies. They attacked the left and chipped away at Sinn Féin’s voter base, winning some, demoralising others, costing the socialist left valuable transfers. The socialist left was much less transfer friendly than usual in this election.

The extreme far right may have lost out on seats but they helped Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and despite the fact the exit polls showed only 6% thought immigration was the most important issue the establishment used it to discipline Sinn Fein who flip flopped before adopting some far right talking points in their policies.

Of course, there were far right populist politicians elected from the Independent pool and Aontu doubled their vote.

Sinn Féin’s hesitation to challenge the establishment lost them support. They allowed themselves to be bullied into submission. No one likes to support the weak. Their failure to put up a fight allowed a bruised establishment to sail back in. Only when the election was called did Sinn Féin remember they had a bag of left rhetoric they could pull out.

Fianna Fáil had 481,417 voters this election - almost the same as their 2020 vote. This is 100,000 below their 2016 vote but 100,000 above their 2011 vote. Hatred for Fianna Fáil after the banking crash gave Fine Gael 801,628 votes in 2011 but their stint in government with Labour saw them lose over 250,000 voters. The class structure of Irish capitalist means the right are sure to always get a vote. But their support among workers has been declining.

Voters did punish Health Minister Stephen Donnelly with the loss of his seat. And the Green Party has collapsed with Minister for Culture Catherine Martin losing her seat too.

Sinn Féin understands that mass movements like the water charges favour the rise of the socialist left and have repeated the mantra that only putting them into office would solve the housing crisis, the cost of living crisis or fix the health service. But a declining level of mobilisation would eventually hit them.

Unfortunately, the People Before Profit majority decided to repeat this Sinn Féin mantra for the last 4 years. Sinn Féin said: “put us in and we’ll solve the housing crisis!” People Before Profit said: “Only a left government can solve the housing crisis!” As soon as the recent election was called, leading members of the Socialist Workers Network made videos saying there was the potential for a “transformative” government.

If you say a Sinn Féin government is going to be “transformative” then why wouldn’t workers vote for the bigger party to get that government into power?

The excuse that this call for a “left government” doesn’t mean a Sinn Féin government but instead some future ideal left government that could take lots of nice radical measures is silly. This was thrown out the window the minute the election was called - and the actual left government on offer was one made up of Sinn Féin, Labour and the Soc Dems.

Surprisingly, most workers interpret the call for a left government as a call for the actual left government on offer. Mad that! If you call on people to wait for saviours from above you can’t act surprised when they sit at home.

The lack of mobilisation in working class areas and the transfer of middle class Green voters to Labour and the Soc Dems saw them do well. Vicious austerity in power had seen Labour fall from 431,796 voters in 2011 to just 140,898 in 2016. Their decline continued in 2020 with their vote falling to just 95,588.

Their recent “recovery” is very modest - they got 102,457 votes in this election, a far cry from the “Gilmore Gale” of 2011. But the Soc Dems increased their vote from 63,404 in 2020 to 106,457. Labour and the Soc Dems gained over 49,000 voters while the Greens lost over 88,000 votes. These are middle class parties ready to do deals with any other party to access power.

In Dublin South Central, as an example, the Soc Dems got votes in Chapelizod and genetrified parts of Dublin 8 - but not as many in Ballyfermot or Crumlin. No government made up of Sinn Féin, Labour and the middle class Soc Dems would be “transformative”.

We need to get rid of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, no doubt. But can we do that with eyes open as to the nature of the parties that would make up a left government in Ireland? If socialists joined a government with Labour and the Soc Dems they’d be tied to Labour betrayals and to Soc Dem compromise.

You can offer to support a Sinn Féin government externally and case by case so that you can discipline them. Their role in government in the North and their flip flops on Palestine and fighting racism show why there needs to be a tight leash put on them. External support offers political independence for the fighting left while allowing you to also vote out Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The advantage of explaining external support for a Sinn Féin government to workers now is that you get to say we will help remove Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but you also warn workers that we have to continue to mobilise, ignore those who’d tell us to wait for salvation from above and argue we need to build an independent socialist organisation that acts as our own working class voice.

The loss of People Before Profit TDs in this election is a bitter blow - Gino Kenny has been an important working class voice in the Dáil and Hazel Norton, who stood to replace Bríd Smith, would have brought the concerns of deprived communities like her home turf in Cherry Orchard into the Dáil.

But the total number of People Before Profit votes actually rose, despite the difficult political terrain.

While the combined People Before Profit Socialist Party vote went from 57,420 in 2020 to 62,481 in 2024 the People Before Profit component of that went from 40,220 to 49,344 votes. Obviously this vote is spread across a great number of candidates and Paul Murphy’s vote was added when he joined People Before Profit.

One area where significant gains were made was in Dublin North West where young candidate Conor Reddy got 2,917 votes.

Conor has been seen to be campaigning locally on special needs, for repairs to council tenant’s homes and has taken on racist arguments when they arose. This organic anti-racism, tied to local campaigning on issues that matter to people, can win angry working class people. Local campaigns on behalf of our estates act as shields that protect the socialist left from far right poison.

This was clear from Conor’s over 600 transfers from far right agitator Gavin Pepper. Hundreds of people gave Pepper their number 1 and Conor their 2. This shows the conflict in poor people’s heads about where to direct anger - whether to blame other poor people or fight the government.

The power of local campaigning was also evident in the local elections where Madeleine Johansson, a tenant resisting a mass eviction from Tathony House and a local councillor who compulsory purchased derelict and vacant homes, was able to slightly increase her vote.

Conor gained votes as he rose to meet the available socialist vote - but most incumbent socialist TDs lost votes. In Dublin South Central Bríd Smith won 4,753 votes in 2020 yet her replacement Cllr Hazel Norton got 3,331 votes this time - a loss of 1,422 voters. The loss of a People Before Profit councillor in Dublin 8 earlier this year was a sign of things to come.

Hazel’s base is really strong in Ballyfermot - with a strong local protest movement on Bus Connects this year. But votes were weaker across other parts of the constituency, that combined with a less transfer friendly socialist left, cost the seat.

Gino Kenny got in in 2020 with 3,572 votes and really strong transfers from other candidates. This time he got 2,608 votes, a loss of almost 1,000 voters. In many boxes in North Clondalkin Madeleine Johansson fared better in the locals than Gino Kenny did in the general election.

The far right played a role in poisoning people and a massive loss of transfers was clear at the count centre. The question is why was Madeleine’s North Clondalkin vote more immune to that? Even Richard Boyd Barrett TD, most identified with the call for a Sinn Féin led government, lost almost 3,000 voters and fell from poll topper to winning the last seat.

Paul Murphy got 9,005 votes at the height of the water charges movement, which was particularly intense in Jobstown, and while he then fell to 4,477 votes in 2020 he was able to rise again to 5,081 votes this election. He had recently campaigned to save a local post office and on housing.

The reason I’ve focused on numbers of voters rather than percentages is because socialists should be concerned with how many people we are convincing. Richard Boyd Barrett losing 3,000 votes is a sign that those people weren’t convinced by what we were saying. They stayed at home and in some cases switched allegiance.

On the People Before Profit steering group Red Network members had accurately described the current political situation, warned seats were at risk, argued for a focus on key areas and pushed for a clearer line on Sinn Féin’s flip flops. We were right all along.

While People Before Profit took a hit - losing seats in key areas - the rest of the socialist left fared worse - Joan Collins lost her seat, as did Thomas Pringle, Clare Daly didn’t poll well and the Socialist Party exchanged Ruth Coppinger for Mick Barry.

Where do we go from here?

The socialist left needs to remember - our fate is tied to struggle. The ascending arc of struggle from 2008 to 2016 saw the socialist left reach the highest level of support we’ve ever had. The nurses strike will be an important challenge to the incoming government. We have to help the rank and file knock heads with the union bureaucrats who will always betray every struggle for a cheap deal.

The Irish Congress of Trade Unions has also suffocated the housing movement for the last 2 years failing to mobilise Raise the Roof. Their last protest was November 2022. We need to call them out on this. They’ve postured on anti-racism but haven’t done anything on housing. This is counterproductive.

We also need to call out anyone on the left that downplays the transformative power of mass mobilisation - whether they do that overtly or by calling for any variation of saviours from above. But will they listen? Probably not.

Some in People Before Profit are already calling for an Irish version of the “French Popular Front” - a united political front that saw the French Blairites stab the alliance in the back and jump ship the minute Macron stole the election. They refused to join protests against Macron.

Now France has a right wing government led by Macron appointee Barnier, supported by the fascist Le Pen. The far right got to dictate policy so Barnier could get his measures through parliament. Now he’s been voted down in parliament but the Blairites in the Socialist Party will screw over the alliance first change they get.

The job of the socialist left is not to give the Blairites political cover but to explain what they are bound to do, to explain their class make up and political nature. The reason the Russian revolutionary Lenin called his newspaper “Pravda” (meaning “truth”) was because the advanced elements of the working class can handle the cold hard truth.

The essence of Lenin’s political method was to pull soft left forces into common struggle for a practical aim (like abolition of water charges or against the housing crisis) while maintaining complete political independence for the socialist left. Both were necessary to pull supporters away from the soft left and convince them of the need for a people power rebellion against capitalism.

Political alliances are a caricature of the united front and lead to the subordination of the socialist left to the larger groups in such alliances. Struggle alone won’t clarify the position of various parties on the left - you need struggle and debate. People Before Profit will fall apart if it continues to play at being “Sinn Féin junior”.

The People Before Profit vote is strongest in the blue collar working class estates - there is a solid block of socialist voters who stick with the socialist left despite the arguments of fascists, despite the low level of struggle and despite a confused message coming from the radical left. They are the “advanced workers” and the job of socialists is to agitate, educate and organise those workers so they can exercise a pull on the rest of the working class.

This used to be the ABC of socialist organising yet the Socialist Workers Network, the biggest faction in People Before Profit, put out a conference document earlier this year explicitly saying we shouldn’t focus on the “minority of advanced workers”. They’re wrong - of course we need to mobilise on the key day to day issues concerning masses of workers - but then use that to argue for the need for a revolution.

We workers are broken and alienated by powerlessness under capitalism. Only people power, only revolution offers the working class the chance to put the levers of power in our own hands. Nothing short of this is real liberation. If we argue clearly and in popular language for this then maybe the disenfranchised working class will also raise their heads and say “Yes, they finally understand why we don’t vote, why we despise a state that has neglected and ignored us for so long, let’s start to fight back!”

We’ve just had an election with the lowest turnout since 1923 - the year when the Irish revolution was defeated. That’s an indication of the bitterness out there. But bitterness can turn into anger and situations of political depression can lead to explosions of popular mobilization. We beat Fine Gael when they tried to introduce water charges. We can beat any government if we want to.

When ICTU or Sinn Féin complain about the new government we have to shout - then take to the streets and protest!

Many workers will now be demoralised by the return of the same old crowd to power. It’s our job to mobilise people locally and nationally to recover the confidence of our class. The road to a new Irish revolution is going to be a long one. To get to the end of it we need to give workers clear vision, a fighting attitude and revolutionary honesty. Sinn Féin didn’t put up a strong enough fight, we socialists will!

That’s what the Red Network is for. Join us.